A. The banking industry is in free fall and the problem is spreading.

B. There’s methane bubbling out of the Arctic.

To me, the really interesting thing about this period in history is the amount of uncertainty over what story lines will dominate our lives, moving forward. Both of the topics are obviously important, but only one of them is grabbing massive headlines.

In science fiction, it’s convenient to extrapolate based on a small number of factors – say increasing computing power and network effects, or in my case, something like intense drought. As you add more variables, it becomes harder to construct a coherent future, and it’s harder to deliver a focused experience with meaningful take-aways for your reader.

But the current set of events is a pretty interesting window into how randomized our future can actually be. The banking crisis is happening now, and so we’re already trying to construct storylines about what this means, everything from the next Great Depression, to the rise of China as financial hub. But these storylines either heark back to past (and probably outdated) metaphors to explain the present, or depend on the idea that there are no other variables in play. Even with just two variables, you can have a lot of interesting outcomes.

Which brings me to the methane bubbling away up in the Arctic. Right now, we’re under the impression that the banks are the story. That’s what those huge type-face headlines tell us. But maybe the real story is that climate change legislation is being put off yet again thanks to the banking crisis, or that the bailout may drain our coffers to the extent that we have no appetite to go after a comprehensive energy plan, regardless of who gets elected in November. Maybe, in a hundred years everyone will look back on the moment when our last window of opportunity closed for addressing climate change, and yeah, the banks were important, but only because they ensured that we missed the real storyline.

I have a feeling this will just keep going drip drip drip with the American Chemistry Council blustering about how all the studies are flawed and finally, in about ten years, everyone will say, yeah, we really should have banned this stuff a long time ago. Until then? Drip drip drip, with consumer deselection as the only route of protest. Nalgene is producing BPA-free bottles now.

And here’s a link describing BPA, its history, and the ongoing scientific and regulatory warfare:
http://www.defendingscience.org/case_studies/Battles-Over-Bisphenol-A.cfm

-Paolo

When I wrote “The Calorie Man” this questionable little trick had been performed on rabbits. It provided the creative spark for Cheshires, and also formed the basis for the grain-sniffing IP enforcement dogs that show up in the beginning of the story. Two sides of the same coin: one animal that had been successfully (and safely) engineered, one that hadn’t.

Now that we’ve got glow cats, it just seems like a matter of time before some designer GM critter makes it into the wild, either because it escapes captivity, or because some dingwad dumps it off on a highway somewhere when the novelty wears off. It won’t happen this year. Or next year. Or the year after that, probably. But still, it has to happen. Genies like this were meant to get out of the bottle.