They have always cost money, some a lot more than others- their current ‘free’ availability is really the issue of piracy. Even if writers were to guard the distribution of their books jealously, it would not stop ebook piracy when we reach that stage. I would argue it doesn’t have anything to do with the association of the reader with the price point of the product.

Similarly, you and I both know that tv shows like Heroes aren’t really free, but cost a lot of money to license (hence, here in Singapore, we lag half a season behind). Lots of people use illegal copies of Adobe Photoshop- this doesn’t mean they think it’s free- of course we all know it costs $400 a copy.

What I think overcomes the problem of piracy is the ability to generate ‘real fandom’. Real fans buy the genuine stuff. They buy the limited edition CDs and DVDs, the concert tickets, the signed hard copies. People like John Scalzi and Neil Gaiman do this amazingly well. This is one approach that works and pays off. For it to work though, you must first create exposure, so you can hook your fans. Isn’t that how it always is? We’re just extending this exposure online.

I’m crazy about the works of a few writers myself, and in all the cases, I was first introduced for ‘free’ or minimal cost at the local library or rental bookstore. It wasn’t till I started working that I could afford the beautifully bound hard covers that I ordered through Amazon. It takes years to make a fan. For writers who haven’t the luck to have affordable paperbacks mass distributed, or to pollinate libraries, they need another way to create exposure- and the creative commons license provides that.

But casual fans will always go for free downloads, and in numbers, they beat non-casual fans 9 to 1. It’s a piracy issue. Firstly, people have to first value intellectual property and the effort that went into the product, and secondly, the product has to be priced low enough and easily accessible (itunes does a good job with price point but not in convenience).

Then again, with a community of writers, and a del.icio.us or a Digg or Youtube-type ranking system, the problem may be solved. The internet already is developing tools that help guide people to “good” stuff. And I suspect in the future, there will likely be even more methods for creating buzz and attention.

As you yourself point out, a publisher isn’t automatically a stamp of quality. In fact, their attention to the bottom line may actually prevent them from publishing some works of quality in favor of the next paranormal romance that has a safe and defined market and is eminently profitable.

Come to think of it, Amazon already creates a set of sorting methods, from its sales ranking system to its “People who bought this also bought” which creates a pathway for affinity that is unmatched by a brick-and-mortar bookstore, or by publisher name-brand recognition.

I, as an author (or a hopefully someday I will sell something author) will have the option of trying to market my book myself. Sure, I lose the power of the Publisher and I lose the glory of the Book Advance in a nice lump sum, but as an ebook I do not have to deal with having to earn back an advance. Even at $1 per copy sold (or $.50) I could quite possibly earn a SFF book advance for the average author. The market shifts to authors pushing their work and distributing from the Publisher.

The trouble, of course, is that there will be so much chaff that finding the wheat may be difficult. If everyone is out there and there are few publishers, how do I find Charles Stross and John Scalzi? Where do I find Naomi Novik? The value of the publisher is pre-identifying works that are superior to the slush pile. I know when I read a book or story via Subterranean that I’m getting a quality work of fiction. As much as Author is always a Brand, some small publishers are Brands in their own right. Tor or Del Rey can be hit and miss, but Golden Gryphon and Subterranean and possibly Pyr…I know I’m getting quality.

The point to the ramble? The market will shift…we just don’t know how or what the role of the publisher will be.

Hey, maybe that will mean that the actual physical books produced will be of higher quality. Wouldn’t it be great if the spine didn’t break on the first read?

I live in a fantasy world. Lemme be.